Children - the Pursuit of Happiness?
Hans-Peter Kohler
Professor of Sociology
The New York Times Magazine recently published a cover story entitled “No Babies”, describing the decline of fertility – or the reduction in the number of children born per woman – that has become pervasive in many developed countries. The popular press sometimes even speaks about a “Demographic Suicide” of nations such as Italy, Germany, Japan and several other European and Asian countries. The facts are indeed eye-opening: Extrapolating the projected Italian population decline, using admittedly somewhat naïve methods, suggests that the last pasta will be served on the banks of the Tiber in 2300AD. In contrast, the U.S. population is projected to grow, adding a staggering number of 100 millions in the next 40 years. So, while the existence of Italian Pasta is apparently in danger, no risks are present for the future of the Philly cheese steak. Why is this contrast? Demographers, that is, the folks like me who study such issues, will tell you something about the costs of children, about the institutional incompatibilities preventing the combination of childrearing and labor force participation, and changing norms and social pressures. But one question, until recently, had no good answer: Does having children actually make the parents happier? As surprisingly as it is, Demography has little to say to young adults, such as the annual graduates of this great university, on whether having kids during their lives actually adds to their feeling of well-being. So, we’ve looked into this, and as often, finding an answer to a causal question is somewhat tricky. It turns out that having a child – but only the first child – does make individuals happier, on average. And this effect is sizable: for those who don’t already know, the first child makes a big bang in the life of the new parents. However, it’s downhill from the second child onward, at least for mothers. And, it seems, the effect disappears altogether at older ages. In summary, therefore, having children does seem to increase happiness in life, but perhaps not as much as one may have guessed. Two implications thus follow. First, for the young adults at this university, if your in it for the pursuit of happiness, plan your life – including the demographic aspects of it – very wisely! Second, this research implies that, if having children is consistent with individuals’ pursuit of happiness, the fear of “no babies” in developed countries may be premature. And it turns out that there is evidence: as the most advanced nations further develop, the decline of fertility – which in the past was so inherently connected to social and economic progress – is indeed inverted. Instead of fewer children, at the very top, further progress on the development ladder actually stimulates “more babies”. Including in Italy. Contrary to the pessimists’ predictions, bambinos and pasta may thus be plentiful in the years to come.